| I knew this was coming, and wrote as much here. But I had no idea this was going to hit us so soon. In fact, it had already hit us when I wrote the linked article. Let's do a little analysis of why the Feds want access to Google's database and what's going to happen if they do get their hands on it.
Ok. first the facts:
- The Bush administration on Wednesday asked a federal judge to order Google to turn over a broad range of material from its closely guarded databases.
- Google has refused to comply with a subpoena issued last year for the records, which include a request for 1 million random Web addresses and records of all Google searches from any one-week period.
This is the link to the full article from The San Jose Mercury News.
Analysis : The government contends it needs the Google data to determine how often pornography shows up in online searches. Google opposes releasing the information on a variety of grounds, saying it would violate the privacy rights of its users and reveal company trade secrets, according to court documents. At the heart of this argument lies one central fact - The nerve centre of the internet, or what geeks would call 'routers', are the search engines. Without the search engines, the internet would be one vast library without an index. I mean, what use is a ton of information and news, if you can't find it?
Another fact, as I stated in the article, is that Google sits at the top of this SE food chain. I also predicted that Yahoo and MSN would give up their databases first, and Google would fight it tooth and nail. That is exactly what seems to be happening.
Ultimately, this is about control of the internet. They want to know who is reading what, and who is writing what. Definitely falls under violations of Freedom Of Speech. The sky is falling, and it's going to hit our heads pretty soon - Soon as Google gives up their database, which, if you are a fan of my predictions, is going to be sometime before Novemeber 2006. And if you're here because you found this page in Google, well - That's rich irony for you. Cause now the Feds will know that you know they're going to know - Or something like that.
Update - 25th Jan 2006 : This Feds vs. Google thing is snowballing into a much bigger issue than I thought. This is now more into politics and the US economy than porn. But I'll still give it a shot. Here's the deal : Google shares went into free fall after the news broke. Reminds of a rather unhappy time - The decision to break up Microsoft into two parts by the US courts. What happened immediately after that we all know - The big dot-com bubble broke and the whole world's economy went into a recession. I foresee a similar meltdown come November. The day Google gives up it's data, it will lose it's power as the pre-eminent search engine and internet market leader. Google stock will be back on earth, and it'll be followed by a meltdown in stocks worldwide. Better batten down the hatches and prepare for an extended winter of confusion. One more thing, this time round, after the smoke settles down, there ain't going to be a revival. This is about to kill the internet as we know it. What happens if a foreign government wants to subpoena Google's databse next? Can they refuse? Not likely.
Update - 27th Jan 2006 : Google's attempt to fend off the US government's request forms of search terms will move to a federal court in San Jose, California, on 27 February. Link to the full article from ZDNet.
Update - 27th Jan 2006 : Google's attempt to fend off the US government's request forms of search terms will move to a federal court in San Jose, California, on 27 February. Link to the full article from ZDNet.
Update - 31st Jan 2006 : Google shares plunge. Full link to the article from Yahoo News. ok, I won't say I told you so, but I badly want to. Am I the only one seeing this coming? I feel like I'm talking to an empty room. Oh well, some things you can't do anything about. Though if the powers that be have any sense, they'll do well to leave Google alone. I'm seeing internet reccesion part II early next year and the alarm bells are ringing loud in my head. Someone do something.
Market economy purists and idealists might argue that Google shares are grossly overvalued and they were bound to come down sooner or later. And they would be right. But I've got news for you, pal - You don't pull out a car-jack from under your car without putting the tire back again. It's one thing to bring Google back down to earth when the manufacturing sector's booming, and it's a totally different thing to pull the plug when manufacturing's in it's 'last throes'. Wish you luck.
Update - 13th Feb 2006 : Google shares may fall another 50 pct - Barron's. Article says that would make the stock worth $188, versus its recent $360," Barron's reported. The stock traded at levels above $471 on January 11, but closed at $362.61 on Friday on Nasdaq.
Update - 18th Feb 2006 : Google rips Bush administration's search request - San Jose Mercury News article says "Google described the lengths it goes to protect its search algorithms from competitors, including not disclosing the number of computers it uses to run the search engine, the number of queries processed in a day, the type of browsers those queries are entered on and the nature of the search strings people type in. ``The very fact that the Government is so uninformed about the value of search and URL information and so dismissive of Google's interest in protecting it speaks volumes about why the Court should protect Google from this compelled disclosure,'' the company wrote."
Well, we'll find out if the Judge agrees with that on 27th Feb 2006.
Update - 20th Feb 2006 : Google may have to fight second subpoena - ZDNet article quotes ACLU attorney Aden Fine - "If the government utilizes the information in any manner, we're very likely going to need to do follow-up discovery."
With friends like these, who needs enemies, huh? This is really ironic. Bill Gates must be laughing his head off, at the thought of Google having to hand over it's secrets to both the Feds and the ACLU.
As 27th Feb 2006 draws closer, this thing is heating up to a boiling point. Somethings gotta give.
Update - 26th Feb 2006 : Justice Department responds to Google's privacy concerns - San Jose Mercury News article - "Concerns by Google Inc. that the Bush administration's demand to examine millions of its users' Internet search requests would violate privacy rights are unwarranted..."
Ok, so what they are saying is that since users are not to identified, no privacy rights are violated, and Google should have no problem handing over the data, minus any identification.
So, let's say Google hands over the data - Now the Justice dept. will know exactly which sites are most visited for which keywords. Question is, what'll they with it? Will they stick to sites which are actually breaking the law, or will they start a random witchhunt to bring down the sites they want? Also, what effect will that have on the websites, on google, and the interdependence of both? I mean, if you follow through this logically, what it means is that every site which is found in the Google list better put all the content behind a payment gateway, or else...
Update - 28th Feb 2006 : Google shares down 13% - Toronto Star article - "The latest in a series of abrupt downturns in Googleˇ¦s stock followed CFO George Reyes' answer to a question during an investor conference hosted by Merrill Lynch in New York."
What's to say? Google stock is going down faster than a punch drunk boxer after a knockout punch. Next fall in the shae price after the Judge's decision on whether Google needs to hand over the data or not...
Update - 9th March 2006 : Justice Department v. Google court date postponed again - CNet news brief - "U.S. District Judge James Ware in San Jose, Calif. on Friday postponed the hearing from March 13 to March 14 at 9:00 a.m PT"
Fingers Crossed.
Update - 15th March 2006 : Judge To Grant Fed Request For Google Data - Feds Reduce number of search records wanted - MyWay news brief - "The government on Tuesday reduced the number of Google searches it wanted data on to just 50,000 Web addresses and roughly 5,000 search terms from the millions or potentially billions of addresses it had initially sought."
Google wins. Yahoo and MSN must be kicking themselves for handing over a million records, while Google squeaks by with handing over 5000 search terms. You can pack all the doomsday prophecies I staked out above and store them in a safe place until next time.
Update - 18th March 2006 : Google Avoids Surrendering Search Requests - Yahoo News article - "Google won't have to disclose what people have been looking for on its widely used search engine, handing a significant victory to the company and privacy rights advocates."
Well, that sould be the end of that. I don't expect any more updates on this, unless the feds come up with something in the web-sites they get from Google.
Update - 20th March 2006 : One Last Word - Had it not been for Google's refusal to hand over the data, which led to the Feds going to court, which led to the San Jose Mercury Times breaking this story, we would never have found out about this. Lesson? Let's say they asked for millions of email records from Yahoo and Hotmail, but not from Gmail. We would never find out, right? So, use Google for all things. At least we'll find out if someone wants to play around with the data.
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